This paper identifies two types of policy uncertainty measures–government spending and real interest rates–and their impact on macroeconomic activity in 54 advanced, emerging, and developing economies...
This Brief examines the impact of US interest rate hikes on developing East Asian economies. The effect will depend on the underlying factors driving the changes in US interest rates. US interest rates...
Investment growth slowed in the past decade in all emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) regions, but most sharply in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) and the Middle East and North Africa (MNA)...
Potential growth slowed in most emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) regions in the past decade. The steepest slowdown occurred in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA), followed by East Asia...
Potential growth—the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment—is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary...
This paper examines the implications of different types of interest rate shocks in the United States for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). It first classifies changes in U.S. interest rates...
Economic momentum continued over July-December 2021 (H1 FY22) as indicators mostly signaled positive trends. With sustained improvement in community mobility and still-robust official remittance inflows...
This paper quantifies global demand, supply, and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Two alternative approaches are used...
Global activity is now moderating from a strong rebound following the pandemic recession. Inflation has risen to become a central concern, with global financial conditions tightening as central banks act...
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With close to 30 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) using inflation targeting to determine monetary policy, and many of them for over 15 years, it is possible to create a meaningful measure...
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major...
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has devastated lives and damaged economies, requiring strong and decisive policy responses from governments. Developing the optimal short-term and long-term policy response...
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well. However, following a short-lived initial...
Following a collapse in the first quarter of 2020, economic activity in China has normalized faster than expected, aided by an effective pandemic-control strategy, strong policy support, and resilient...
Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged...
Although global economic activity is recovering and output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to grow in 2021, containing COVID-19 remains a challenge in the region. Enterprise survey data for...
Following a collapse in the first quarter of 2020, economic activity in China has normalized faster than expected, aided by an effective pandemic-control strategy, strong policy support, and resilient...
COVID-19 has delivered a triple shock to the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region: the pandemic itself, the economic impact of containment measures, and reverberations from the global recession...
Economic conditions in China have changed dramatically over the past six months. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and measures taken to contain it have triggered a combined demand and supply shock...