Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic...
This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available...
It is generally acknowledged that a government's output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution adopted by national accounts systems is to equate output value to...
"Getting the prices right" is a good starting point but is not sufficient for achieving environmentally efficient outcomes. Other policy interventions are often necessary to complement pricing policies...
This paper examines the issue of variable selection in linear regression modeling, where there is a potentially large amount of possible covariates and economic theory offers insufficient guidance on how...
In the decade leading to the recent commodity boom, which peaked in 2007-08, several resource-rich, low-income countries displayed high rates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth while social indicators...
In the decade leading to the recent commodity boom, which peaked in 2007-08, several resource-rich, low-income countries displayed high rates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth while social indicators...
This note argues that a carbon tax system is more practical to implement, monitor, and enforce than tradable permit-based approaches to global climate-change action. It suggests that a sensible design...
This paper assesses whether the level of taxation of motor fuel is broadly appropriate in a group of countries (OECD, BRICs and South Africa) accounting for more than 80 percent of world greenhouse gas...
While the term 'fiscal space' is new, the issue is quite old. Fiscal space refers to availability of budgetary resources for a specific purpose, typically growth-enhancing investment uses, without jeopardizing...
This paper discusses the design of CO2 taxes at the domestic and international level and the choice of taxes versus cap and trade. There is a strong case for taxes on uncertainty, fiscal, and distributional...
This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix...
This brief discusses some implications of the recent Development Committee (DC) communique that entrusted the Bank with the development and operationalization of growth-oriented, country-specific approaches...
While only measures properly reflecting net societal benefits should be used to rank policies, several other measures also attempting to summarize the value of net flows are often presented -- i.e., the...
This paper examines the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors...
Chile has managed to promote economic growth and keep discipline in its public finances through the unrelenting and disciplined use of transparent cost-benefit analysis for all public investment projects...
The authors present a measure of jointness to explore dependence among regressors in the context of Bayesian model selection. The jointness measure they propose equals the posterior odds ratio between...