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Fourth Ethiopia economic update : overcoming constraints in the manufacturing sector (Английский)

The Ethiopian economy continued its strong expansion in FY14 with real GDP growing by 10.3 percent. Growth was driven mainly by the services sector from the supply side and public investment from the demand side. At the same time, inflation has remained in single digits for the last two years on account of tighter monetary policy and lower international commodity prices. However, in recent months in 2015, domestic food prices are increasing partially as a result of shortage rainfall during the short rainy season. On the fiscal side, the budgetary stance at the general government level has been cautious. In an effort to adjust for the rising cost living, the FY15 budget incorporates an increase in public sector salaries after years of no increases which could also be the first step to adjust the balance between capital and recurrent expenditure. The salary increase accompanied by a supplementary budget in the middle of the fiscal year could potentially increase the budget deficit. The current account balance weakened. The deterioration is on account of a worsening trade deficit which was driven by weak export performance and large imports of capital goods for public investment programs. Goods exports showed positive growth in 2013-14 but rates remained far below their historical growth; furthermore, export growth fell into negative territory again in the last quarter of 2014 and first quarter of 2015. The strong economic growth in the past decade helped to reduce poverty significantly. The poverty headcount, measured by the national poverty line, fell from 38.7 percent in 2005 to 29.67 percent in 2011. Measured with the international poverty line (US$1.25 per day) Ethiopia saw the second fastest rate of reduction in Africa. Economic growth, particularly in agriculture, has been an important driver of poverty reduction in the last decade. Favorable weather conditions and improving terms of trade for rural producers have been reasons of this past trend supported by strong improvements in access to basic services and rural safety nets. Low levels of inequality have been maintained with the Gini coefficient remaining stable at 0.30.

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    Geiger,Michael Tobias, Moller,Lars Christian

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    Fourth Ethiopia economic update : overcoming constraints in the manufacturing sector

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    Technical and Vocational Education;small and medium size enterprise;business environment constraints;annual per capita growth rate;manufacturing sector;private sector credit;return on asset;real effective exchange rate;total factor productivity growth;external current account balance;access to finance;current account deficit;terms of trade;private insurance company;Access to Education;net domestic credit;public sector wage;tight monetary policy;domestic indirect tax;plug and play;export of goods;general government expenditure;working age population;trade and services;real exchange rate;consumer price index;finance and economic;errors and omission;public infrastructure investment;reduction in poverty;net foreign asset;Capital Adequacy Ratio;improvements in access;international poverty line;price of good;public investment program;total actual expenditure;private commercial bank;power generation capacity;price of fuel;domestic food prices;international commodity price;commodity price support;per capita income;competitive exchange rate;exchange rate arrangement;government budget execution;share of employment;quality of education;Access to Electricity;reserve money;banking sector;broad money;oil price;binding constraint;insurance sector;real wage;capital good;capital spending;trade balance;crop production;budget deficit;government revenue;entry barrier;treasury bill;operational constraints;trade deficit;insurance companies;minimum requirement;import price;inflation expectation;price decline;real gdp;domestic financing;business entry;lending rate;additional revenue;domestic revenue;fiscal side;supply side;productivity performance;credit growth;agricultural sector;industrial park;productivity benchmark;skill development;rising cost;private investment;government bond;money growth;supplementary budget;goods export;positive growth;historical growth;export growth;external resource;Tax Administration;export performance;industrial job;private capital;compulsory insurance;weather condition;total employment;net importer;real income;domestic consumption;life insurance;bond sale;corporate market;general insurance;formal insurance;foreign trade;customs process;outstanding credit;financial service;investment climate;debt finance;domestic worker;labor decline;market study;Market Studies;total saving;fiscal stress;private company;firm entry;low-income economy;payroll tax;tax system;Job Creation;investment constraints;branch network;capital expenditure;local economy;government spending;government fiscal;sugar industry;dynamic economy;microfinance institution;fiscal deficit;finance company;credit support;domestic investor;banking system;investment grade;program leader;domestic sale;inflation rate;volatility period;manufacturing development;high frequency;firm productivity;social indicator;unit labor;light manufacturing;cargo service;industrial zone;passenger traffic;Trade Logistics;customs procedure;exporting firms;business sector;private consumption;indirect impact;net export;agriculture sector;crop category;construction boom;trade regulation;SME finance;skill shortage;nominal depreciation;export competitiveness;secondary graduate;important component;external competitiveness;macroeconomic effect;industrialized economy;rainy season;rising debt;borrowing cost;efficient production;high capital;poverty headcount;cereal price;merchandise trade;street light;factor price;national account;signaling effect;industry sector;welfare gains;labor productivity;skill need;information asymmetry;nominal devaluation;regulatory burden;Exchange Rates;cement industry;animal fodder;banking industry;monetary survey;monetary discipline;fiscal policy;Fiscal policies;railway line;asset quality;minimum deposit;public bank;international environment;outstanding loan;industrial sector;liquidity ratio;loan portfolio;external source;liquid asset;financial intermediation;credit source;monetary growth;external borrowing;expenditure budget;tax revenue;reserve requirement

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