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Mozambique - Joint bank-fund debt sustainability analysis : 2013 update (Английский)

This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) updates the joint International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Development Association (IDA) DSA from May 2012. Mozambique moves from low to moderate risk of debt distress as the result of: (i) a lower discount rate, (ii) a significant increase in debt contracted in the last two years related to an ambitious public investment program aimed at narrowing the infrastructure gap, and facilitating the development of natural resources, and (iii) large movements in the underlying balance of payments with the onset of coal exports and significant commercial investments in natural gas exploration and liquefaction. Staffs agree with the authorities on the importance of the public investment program for development. The increased risks to DS, however, should be contained by moderating public external borrowing compared to its current accelerated pace. The DSA highlights that further improvements in debt management and investment planning capacity are important for continued DS, notably in the case of commercial borrowing. As public debt is largely external, the evolution of total public debt indicators mirrors that of public external debt. Private external debt is expected to increase rapidly in importance, mainly driven by investment in the natural gas sector, and to comprise the majority of external debt by the end of this decade.

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