We identify the conditions in terms of economic growth and public transfers required to "…reduce poverty in the Russian Federation by one half by 2024" as stated in President Putin's Decree of May 17th, 2018. The current poverty rate is 13.2 percent, and halving it would mean reducing the current rate to 6.6 percent by 2024. We estimate that average annual growth of 1.5 percent would bring down the poverty rate from 13.2 percent to only 10.7 percent by 2024. And even if Russia were to be able to catch up with the rest of the world, and grow at 3.2 percent annually, the poverty rate would fall to 8.1 percent – still not reaching the stated goal of 6.6 percent. Consequently, to reach the Presidential target of 6.6 percent, we estimate that the annual required growth rate would need to surge to 4.4 percent. However, Russia's goal of halving poverty to 6.6 percent by 2024 could be achieved, even under a modest annual growth scenario of 1.5 percent, by additional redistribution of about 0.4 percent of GDP annually through social assistance and transfers
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Дата подготовки документа
2018/09/01
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Тип документа
Рабочие документы
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Номер отчета
133065
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Том
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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Страна
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Регион
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Дата раскрытия информации
2018/12/18
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Название документа
Halving Poverty in Russia by 2024: What Will It Take?
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Ключевые слова
household per capita income; risk of poverty; social assistance system; national poverty rate; poverty gap; families with child; difference in income; income growth rate; economic growth rate; difference in poverty; official poverty rate; single parent; source income; children in families; social protection system; gdp growth rate; high growth rate; annual average growth; impact on poverty; economies of scale; source of income; rate of growth; share of children; person with disability; poverty reduction target; social assistance program; allocation of transfer; form of poverty; decline in poverty; Social Safety Nets; errors of inclusion; real disposable income; rate of consumption; perfect targeting; child allowance; vulnerable group; social transfer; poverty forecast; population group; household income; labor income; vulnerable category; poverty target; public transfer; poverty risk; demographic group; distribution method; national income; consumption growth; global growth; targeting efficiency; international rate; welfare aggregate; targeting mechanism; housing subsidy; employment likelihood; representative survey; ceteris paribus; program budget; federal budget; Higher Education; retirement age; simulation result; survey data; poverty dynamic; efficiency gain; poverty decline; case management; poverty threshold; expenditure growth; age structure; simulation exercise; poverty alleviation; targeted program; current consumption; employment incentive; average poverty; estimation method; high poverty; large transfer; poverty status; total poverty; intended beneficiary; population size
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