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Are oil windfalls a blessing or a curse? Policy exercises with an Indonesia - like model (Английский)

The value of large, unpredictable terms-of-trade gains to mineral exporting countries has been much debated. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of an Indonesia-like economy to assess the 'value' of oil windfalls over a 20-year horizon. The model is simulated and optimized subject to a variety of assumptions on macroeconomic clearing, institutional constraints on economic policy and the ability to predict the world oil market. The...
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