MENA economic monitor : corrosive subsidies (арабский)
Аннотация
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region is home to 5.5 percent of the world's population, 3.3 percent of its GDP and 48 percent of its energy subsidies. Covering petroleum products, natural gas and electricity, these subsidies are prevalent in ... Подробнее +
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region is home to 5.5 percent of the world's population, 3.3 percent of its GDP and 48 percent of its energy subsidies. Covering petroleum products, natural gas and electricity, these subsidies are prevalent in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Introduced in the 1970s to protect the population from spikes in world oil prices, energy subsidies in MENA have grown to become significant proportions of countries' economies. After the recent round of reforms, energy subsidies in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen still account for more than 5 percent of GDP. Subsidies are even higher among hydrocarbon exporters: in Algeria, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, they exceed 10 percent of GDP. The performance of the MENA region in 2014 is expected to grow by 3 percent this year, but this average masks a big difference between the high-income and developing countries of MENA. The former has a projected growth rate of 4.9 percent, while the latter is expected to grow at 0.7 percent, a bit faster than last year's 0.4 percent. The forecast for 2015 is slightly more favorable. There is an optimistic scenario that growth will pick up to 5.2 percent, based on an increase in public and private consumption from expansionary fiscal policies, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, continued subsidy reforms in Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, and, importantly, a resumption of oil production in Libya. Without the latter, overall MENA growth will be around 4.2 percent.
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